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The Importance of the One Machine

Kevin Kelly, of Wired fame, has written and spoken many times about what he calls the ‘One Machine’.  I find Kevin to be spot on about what the web is transforming into, and I don’t think that you, I , or anyone else are prepared for the changes that this transformation will entail.

(If you haven’t already read these articles by Kevin Kelly [One, Two], you might want to do so now.  They will greatly enhance your understanding of my thinking in this piece.)

Until now, the importance of the computer, cell phone, PDA, or net appliance was what it could do for me locally.  How can this device help me as it exists in my personal space?  But as our devices begin to function more like information pipelines to the One Machine, and less like individual computing devices, our needs and expectations of those devices should be, and slowly are, changing.  Again, as with all technologies, this appears to be happening faster with young people than with the majority of the population.

The term ‘Cloud Computing‘ has gotten a lot of press lately, and rightfully so, but I don’t think that everyone fully understands the massive implications of what is beginning to happen.  Cloud computing, right now, is something that is most easily and widely taken advantage of by corporations looking to save money on massive server arrays that most of us have no interest in discussing or understanding.  Yet it is important to us, because we are starting to realize the benefits of the cloud.  Essentially, many companies have decided to stop buying massive rooms of computers and servers.  It is easier, more reliable, and cheaper to outsource that function to someone else, and let them do all the massive number-crunching and data storage.  As more and more companies head in this direction (which is inevitable, because it’s cheaper, faster, and more reliable), our computing begins to be a function of the grid, instead of a function of our personal computer, or even a function of a company’s network of computers.

My expectation of a computing device has always been what the device is capable of.  But as cloud computing becomes more the norm, it is no longer necessary that my personal device bear the load of the task that I demand.  The cloud can, and does, perform all the necessary computations, and my device is merely utilized for reporting the results to me.  I send my request to the Machine, it figures out the answer, and it reports back to me.  The end result is that I have nearly limitless computational power at my fingertips, with nearly unlimited knowledge and database resources, and I need only have a basic computer (or phone or netbook) in my possession to retrieve the information.  This, without question, is a game-changer on an absolutely historic level.

If you’d like a very simple example of cloud computing, think about this:  If I want to know what 50 times 34.2 is, I could access the calculator on my computer, and find out effortlessly.  But I could also go to www.google.com, and type “50 times 34.2″, and let the cloud, or Machine, do the work instead.  The difference is subtle, but important.  This example is simple, but what if the example was much more complex?  Perhaps I only had a cell phone at my disposal?  And perhaps the problem wasn’t a simple mathematics equation, but a very complex analysis of home values vs. educational standards in rural Midwestern counties under a certain population?  My cell phone would likely have the ability to do the math, but there’s no way that I have that kind of data stored in there.  And right now, getting that information through the cloud is difficult and time-consuming, but it is certainly possible.

Part of what has made Web 2.0 such a success (besides the realization that businesses need to make money) has been the utilization of the network as a provider of services.  Gmail and Hotmail are examples of cloud computing, and their success eventually helped lead to what Amazon now offers with EC2 and EBS. More than a million other services ranging in complexity from Remember the Milk to SalesForce.com allow us to use other people’s processing power in order to perform our own tasks.  And the ability to build our own website/applications, add them to the web, utilize Amazon’s (or someone else’s) processing power, and make them available to the entire world……  Well, it’s causing the One Machine to grow massively smarter and more useful every second of every day.

And what’s about to come is even more interesting yet.  As more phones begin to ship with GPS functionality, and as we begin to become more personally invested in social networks such as FaceBook or LinkedIn, we can look forward to a myriad of services that reflect not only WHO our friends and business associates are, but WHERE they are, and what they’re doing, in real time.  Your fears and concerns about security and privacy are valid, but your children will grasp onto this type of connection and communication in ways that will amaze (and possibly frighten) you.

And as we begin to see the web as One Machine, our perceptions and expectations will change as well.  Where we used to think in terms of the device (”I want my phone to play music”), now we begin to think in terms of the Machine (”I want the Machine to deliver music to me that fits my listening patterns and tendencies based on my personal historical patterns and ratings”).  And the Machine can deliver this to you today, via Pandora.

Once we finally begin to truly look beyond the device, and think of this all as One Machine, we will be able to flip that switch in our minds that allows us to imagine and build the types of applications and services that this machine is truly capable of.  This machine is growing and changing far faster than our relationship with it appears to be comfortable with, but that will not prevent the change from happening.  This Machine is capable of managing every square inch of farmland in the world in the most optimal way to feed a global civilization.  This Machine is capable of designing and managing the most cost-effective shipping routes and schedules to move people and product that the world has ever known.  This Machine is capable of predicting, planning for, and optimizing the health care of an entire population.  This Machine can, using information that is already contained within the Machine, create a tax system that works.  For everyone.

This Machine can ALMOST do these things.

I, for one, look forward to seeing what the next 10 years of the One Machine will bring.